Rough Cuts: No black moon rising

Congratulations to our good friend Bankerohan Barangay Captain Edgar Ibuyan, Sr. for making it back to the Sangguniang Panlungsod of Davao City.

We do not know if it was one streak of luck or following a well-thought-of script. But just the same, his being harnessed back in the saddle of ordinance making could only be indicative that the barangay captain has already made a mark during his nine years’ stint at the local law making body.

Ibuyan ran for the position of Vice President of the Association of Barangay Councils (ABC) of Davao City which he won handily. But no barangay chair filed a certificate of candidacy for President of the association; not even then incumbent Catalunan Grande Barangay chair January Duterte.

So, after some consultations on legal matters and of course seeking advice from party leadership, Ibuyan was catapulted back to the City Council. He attended his first session as ABC representative to the SP last Tuesday.

The bigger question though was why erstwhile ABC President January did not run for her old position. Our hunch is that it has something to do with barangay politics.

Had January run she again would have been a run-away winner in the ABC Presidency. And that would mean she has to relieve herself of the responsibilities of the barangay chair in Catalunan Grande.

And had the wife of the former Vice Mayor done just that, then a non-party mate of January in the person of number one barangay councilor Rudy Abella would have assumed as the Acting Barangay chair by operation of law.

That scenario, we are certain, could have some bearing on the January no-run decision during the ABC Presidential election.

Lucky indeed this friend of ours Bankerohan Barangay Captain Edgar Ibuyan. Now there are two Ibuyans in the Sangguniang Panlungsod, the senior and the junior.

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Davao City Mayor Inday Sara Duterte-Carpio’s shooting into the national political limelight is no black moon rising. It is a well-calculated and calibrated move that has a national political objective.

But she is not running for any national position come 2019 midterm elections. It’s just too soon and whatever is the City Mayor up to may just be too raw if she does it in next year’s polls.

Of course any discerning political analyst would never argue that for a person like Mayor Sara who considers politics a very serious career she has everything planned out. She knows that a well laid foundation would make her every step strongly grounded and that when she decides to jump into the political pool she sees to it that the water is well tested — its depth, its bottom and everything in it.

And to us, that exactly what Mayor Sara is as the up and coming politician with the making of a future national leader.

Yes, we believe the lady mayor when she said she is not running for a national position in 2019. But already she is laying a solid foundation for her launching pad. She is now on top of efforts to consolidate political forces from all over the country. And we believe that she is doing that not for her own plan in 2019 but for the other politicians aspiring a national position for next year and beyond.

And Mayor Inday? Well, she knows too well that should her group’s supported national candidates in 2019 win, her caliber as a political leader of national significance would already be clearly established.

It is our hunch that by then, Mayor Inday would not even shoot for a senatorial seat. Instead, she would target the Vice President’s post.

Why not the Presidency? Many would probably argue that if her group that has its endorsees won in 2019 it would be illogical not to believe that the same political organization cannot make her President in 2022. Such argument, in an instant, sounds sensible.

Yes, why not the Presidency for Sara? It is because as we already postulated the mayor of Davao City is one astute politician who has the genes.

In the first place Mayor Inday knows that her father President Rodrigo Duterte, is advocating for a change in government structure to Federalism. And the group commissioned by the President to come up with a draft of the new Charter is emphatic on forcing out political dynasty in Philippine politics. So, if the shift to a Federal government succeeds Sara’s directly running for President in 2022 will make a mockery of the Charter change that her father strongly works for.

But we cannot also discount the possibility that under a Federal Philippines the City Mayor would be aiming for the position of Governor of a federated region. And if she makes good as such her nationally consolidated Hugpong can become her solid platform to leapfrog to the Presidency of a Federal Philippines. Again, not in 2022 but in the next Presidential elections when her father is already far or totally out of the political picture.

And the same opportunity for a national position still exists for Mayor Inday even if the new government would be Federal Parliamentary. She can aim for the position of Prime Minister.
So Mayor Sara’s ascension to the national political scene is indeed no black moon rising; her rise is like a bright shooting star leaving everyone’s sight trained on her to her perceived direction.

Posted in Opinion