MY TURN| Winning the election  

THE QUESTION in Davao City is not whether Duterte should run for President. The only questions are: 1. Under what political party should he run and 2. Who should be his Vice President? There are about 100 million pilipinos distributed as follows: about 40 million in Luzon, 30 million in Visayas and about 25 to 30 million in Mindanao. One half of the 100 million or 50 million are 18 years old and of voting age. Only one half of those of voting age or 25 million have registgered. Finally, of the 25 million registered voters, only 60% to 70% or about 17 million usually vote. There are six realities presidential strategists accept. One: only two political parties have intact existing organizations from barangays up to city and Town councilors, mayors, provincial board and governors, congressman and seantors, the Liberals and Nationalistas. Only the Nationalista and liberal party machineries cover the entire national which a presidential candidate needs because he must campaign all over. Finally, the N.P. And L.P. Mayors governors congressman etc will be also running for re-election.

Logistics means money to pay for radio, TV, spots, newspaper ads, salaries of campaigners who post propaganda materials, drivers, etc. The presidential and Vice Presidential candidates must give money to the local candidates who in turn will do real all out campaign for the president 2. The ideal team is for a presidential candidate to be from one region (Mindanao) and the Vice President comes from another region. In 1953 the President and Vice Pres candidates were NP Magsaysay Zambales, Luzon Garcia while the LP, had Quirino Ilocos Sur Luzon and Yulo Iloilo Visayas. In 1961, the LPs team of Macapagal Luzon, Pelaez Mindanao beat NP’s Garcia Visayas, Puyat Luzon. In 1965, NP’s Marcos (Ilocos) Lopez (Iloilo) defeated LP’s Macapagal (Luzon) and Gerry Roxas (Visayas). Duterte is a Mindanaoan, unbeaten from 1988 to 2015 as mayor, congressman etc. His father was the last Nationalista Party Governor of the undivided province of Davao (1963 TO 1967) is related to the Duranos of Cebu and a former secretary of the Dept of General Services. He is number one inMindanao and the Visyas and Going up in Luzon in all surveys which means theoretically he will be the winner in Mindanao and Visayas and will be number two or three in Luzon 3. Scandals, corruptions can destroy a presidentiable, Duterte is clean. 4. The Presidentiable must have a vote rich base. Davao City has about 250,000 voters plus those in Del Sur, Oriental, Norte, Compostela Valley. Malita totaling one million plus. Add the 4 Cotabatos, 2 Lanaos, 2 Agusans, 2 Surigaos, the Nene Pimental and Reuben Canoy forces in the 2 Misamis, 3 Zamboangas, 5. The Vice presedentiable must have her own bulwark so she can add votes to her running mate 6. All the political parties want their presidentiable to win so they want the strongest candidate. Villar, says the Nationalistas have no strong candidate for president and admit they are courting Duterte. PNOY’s liberal party has a serious problem.  PNOY out of utang na loob, wants to indorse Roxas to be the L.P. Presidential candidate in 2016.

The Roxas Araneta clan spent million of pesos for PNoy as President and Roxas as Vice President in 2010. Without the Roxas Araneta money PNoy would have lost. Senate President Drilon (Iloilo) is also committed to his Kasin Banua. Roxas (Capiz) because the Araneta Roxas clan’s supportin all his political campaigns. Belmonte,the speaker of the house of representative repeatedly said their party should indorse for president the strongest candidate even if he is not a liberal. Belmonte obviously wants Duterte who is not a LIBERAL remembering Senate President Amang Rodriguez advise “Politics is addition”. President PNoy and Seante President Drilon know its foolish to indorse a non winnable candidate. PNoy knows his candidate for president must win in 2016 or else he will be facing charges like GMA when his term ends in 2016. The ideal team is Duterte Poe. Today everything seem to be going Dutertes way but may things can still happen between now and 2016. Senator Jose W. Diokno was the lawyer of Elias Lopez during 1980, the Santos election protest where the comelec granted the KBL’s petition for a Paquibato election run OFF. Diokno was so brilliant that he convinced the Supreme Court to dump the COMELEC resolution for a special Paquibato election run OFF and more important, to declare that Lopez should be seated as mayor at once. I heard him say during a party tendered by Elias Lopez, “xx remember three things in an election case. One: win the counting (Precinct level) Two: winthe canvassing (when the election returns of all precincts are counted) and three: you must the election protest. Mark HANNA, President Mckinley’s political adviser in 1896 said, Two things are needed to win an election ONE: Money. TWO: I forgot the other.

American Supreme Court Chief Justice John Jay in 1789 explaining the reason for vote buying said “those who own the country should govern it”. L.P. Senate President Jose Avelino debating about politics, morality and decency said “What are we in power for”?

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